College football futures: 3 teams to exceed 2024 preseason win totals

With the start of college football season on August 24 now less than two months away, it’s time to start thinking about which teams to back and which ones to fade when it comes to regular-season win totals.

In recent years, the likes of Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon and others have proven they’re safe bets to get to at least nine or 10 wins per season.

But with the SEC becoming even tougher thanks to the additions of Texas and Oklahoma, and the Big Ten adding Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA, how many of the traditional powers in those leagues can we really trust to hit the Over on their preseason totals?

While it’s hard to bank on even loaded squads like the Bulldogs and Buckeyes given their schedules this season, below are three teams that strike us as good bets to go over their win totals.

Note: for a team to go over their posted total, they have to win the designated number of games during the regular season (excluding conference championships, bowls, and playoff games).

Utah Utes (Big 12): Over 9.5 Wins

Utah Utes 2024 Win Totals (odds available as of July 2)

Best odds: Over 9.5 (-135) DraftKings/BetMGM

Coach Kyle Whittingham’s Utes won nine regular-season games in two of the last three seasons, but injuries prevented the 2023 squad from making it three straight Pac-12 championships.

Last year, three Pac-12 teams finished in the top 11 of the final AP poll: No. 2 Washington, No. 7 Oregon and No. 11 Arizona. That trio accounted for three Utah’s four regular-season losses, with Oregon State — another team the Utes won’t face this season — handing them their only other regular-season loss.

Following its move to the Big 12, the only one of those four former Pac-12 teams that Utah faces this year is Arizona (September 28 at Rice-Eccles Stadium). The softer schedule alone might be reason enough to bank on a big season by Utah, which hosts Arizona and avoids two of the top teams in its new conference — Kansas and Kansas State.

Utah Over 9.5 at -135 or shorter is not cheap, but there’s still plenty of value here. The case for Utah reaching 10 regular-season wins starts with talented seventh-year QB Cam Rising. The veteran signal-caller led Utah to back-to-back Rose Bowl berths after the 2021 and 2022 seasons and returns after missing 2023 due to injury. He leads an offense that will also welcome back stud tight end Brant Kuithe (second-team all-Pac-12 in ’19, ’20 and ’21 before injuries the past two seasons) and veteran RB Micah Bernard.

All that firepower on offense — plus Whittingham’s always-stingy defense — should be more than enough for Utah cash this over and compete for the Big-12 title.

Virginia Cavaliers (ACC): Over 4.5 Wins

Virginia Cavaliers 2024 Win Totals (odds available as of July 2)

Best odds: Over 4.5 (+100) DraftKings

Virginia? Yes, Virginia.

Under former Clemson assistant Tony Elliott, who is entering his third season as head coach in Charlottesville, the Cavaliers won a total of just six games in 2022 (3-7, 1-6 ACC) and 2023 (3-9, 2-6 ACC).

But last year’s team was unlucky in several close losses, and this year’s manageable schedule, plus the return of promising sophomore quarterback Anthony Colandrea, make it easy to see Virginia winning five or more games during the 2024 regular season.

Performance in close games is a tough thing to predict, but generally, if a team wins all its one-possession games one season, it’s due to lose a few of those the next year. Fortunately for Virginia, which went 2-5 in games decided by seven points or less in 2023, the opposite is also true, which is good news for the Cavaliers’ 2024 outlook.

UVA nearly upset NC State, Louisville and James Madison last season. Those teams combined to win 30 games, with the Cardinals and Wolfpack both finishing the season in the top 25. But losses in those games, as well as close Ls against Miami and BC, were a big reason the Cavs finished 2023 at just 3-9.

Colandrea, who started seven games as a true freshman, is not a lock to win the starting job over senior Tony Muskett, who also played a big role a year ago. But the sophomore should have the edge thanks to his high ceiling as a dual threat (over 200 yards rushing in 2023). As long as Colandrea, who threw nine interceptions in just 246 attempts last year, can limit the turnovers, this offense should keep Virginia in most games, even without last year’s top weapon, star receiver Malik Washington.

The final reason to like Virginia to go over 4.5 is its schedule: the Cavaliers start the year with winnable games against Richmond and Wake Forest, followed by contests against Maryland, Coastal Carolina and Boston College. On paper, Virginia has a real chance to get three or four wins during that stretch.

While the schedule after the BC game on October 5 will get much more difficult, lhome games later in the year against North Carolina and SMU, plus a trip to Pitt, will give Colandrea and Co. a realistic shot at reaching at least five wins.

SMU Mustangs (ACC): Over 8.5 Wins

SMU Mustangs 2024 Win Totals (odds available as of July 2)

Best odds: Over 8.5 (+116) FanDuel

Staying in the ACC, let’s take a look at SMU, which is one of three teams joining the conference for the 2024 campaign.

While Cal and Stanford are both expected to struggle in their first season after leaving the Pac-12, SMU has high expectations after an 11-3 (8-0 AAC) finish in 2023, the Mustangs’ final year in the American Athletic Conference.

Mustangs QB Preston Stone was outstanding in 2023, with 3,197 yards passing, 28 TDs and just six interceptions in 344 passing attempts. Stone, a third-team All-AAC selection in ’23, has a chance to take his new conference by storm if he can build on his impressive finish a year ago, when he threw for 17 TDs (with just one pick) over SMU’s final seven regular-season games.

SMU showed in the 2023 AAC conference title game against Tulane that it was no one-man team, though, beating the Green Wave 26-14 with backup QB Kevin Jennings playing in place of the injured Stone, who also missed the bowl game loss to Boston College.

The Mustangs have not only the talent, but the favorable schedule, to make a ton of noise in their first season in the ACC.

Following nonconference battles with Nevada, Houston Christian, BYU and TCU, SMU starts conference play with a home game vs. Florida State on Sept. 28, followed by a road game against Louisville on October 5. After that, this time could conceivably win out down the stretch against Stanford, Duke, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Virginia and Cal.

Even if SMU loses its toughest non-conference game, at home against Dallas-area rival TCU, and drops the matchups with both FSU and Louisville, it would still have a realistic chance to get to 9-3.

The combination of an underrated quarterback and a schedule full of winnable — if not easy — matchups makes the Mustangs as good of a value play in the preseason win totals market as anyone.

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