Donald Trump erases Kamala Harris’ lead in final Pennsylvania poll

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and Donald Trump, the GOP nominee, are neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania, with the former president erasing Harris’ recent lead, according to a state-wide poll that was published on Friday.

Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, is pivotal in securing victory in next week’s presidential election.

USA Today/Suffolk University’s final poll of 500 likely Pennsylvania voters was conducted from October 27 to 30, and shows that Harris and Trump are tied, each with 49 percent of the vote, with a margin error of 4.4 percentage points.

Friday’s poll erases the vice president’s lead in USA Today/Suffolk University’s September 16 survey that showed Harris leading Trump by 3 percentage points (48.6 to 45.6 percent).

In the latest poll results, a poll of 300 likely voters in two bellwether counties was down to the wire. Erie County showed that Trump and Harris were both tied at 48 percent. Meanwhile, Northampton County inclined slightly towards Trump, with 50 percent saying they supported him compared to 48 percent who said Harris.

The results of the county polls are within the margin of error of 5.65 percentage points.

Newsweek has reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns online for comment on Friday.

“All three PA polls show this is a close race, within the respective margins of error, and that the actual outcomes will depend on which campaign can pull out more of its voters on election day,” David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University’s Political Research Center, said in an emailed statement to Newsweek on Friday.

These latest results are on par with a Marist Poll that was published on September 19 in which 1,476 likely Pennsylvania voters were polled between September 12 and 17. In the Marist poll, the vice president and former president were both tied with 49 percent. The margin of error was 3.2 percentage points.

In addition, the Marist Poll showed that Harris led Trump among nonwhite voters (59 to 38 percent). However, Harris’ support among nonwhites failed to match the support President Joe Biden received four years ago (82 percent).

Friday’s poll also revealed demographic and issue-based divides. Nationally, Harris is leading among women, and Trump has garnered a similar edge with men. In Pennsylvania, that gender gap is “very pronounced,” Paleologos said as reported by USA Today.

According to the poll, Trump is ahead by 20 points among men in the swing state, 57 to 37 percent, while Harris has an 18 percent hold on women over Trump, 57 to 39 percent. That’s compared to Trump’s 16-point advantage among men nationally and Harris 17-point advantage among women.

Pennsylvania is one of several key swing states that could determine the outcome of the election and is part of the “blue wall,” which is made up of the 18 states and the District of Columbia that have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in most elections since 1992.

Blue wall states are California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington state, as well as the important battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin.

Overall, the Republican Party has carried Pennsylvania in 26 presidential elections, while the Democratic Party has carried it in 20. In 2016, Trump carried the state by just 0.7 points against former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton while Biden carried it in 2020 by 1.2 points.

Each campaign has intensified outreach efforts in Pennsylvania, with both scheduling rallies across the state this week. Trump held a rally in Allentown on Tuesday while Harris visited Harrisburg on Wednesday and is reportedly holding a rally in Philadelphia on the eve of Election Day.