Full Israeli occupation of Gaza would bring major strategic and moral risks and could massively backfire

One thing is now painfully clear: Israel’s war in Gaza is sliding into a forever war.

With ceasefire negotiations having collapsed, multiple reports in the Israeli media suggest that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is now seeking cabinet approval to fully occupy the Gaza Strip.

Currently, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) operates across 88% of the territory, which is either under Israeli displacement orders or is a designated militarised zone.

But under the new plan, the military would advance into the remaining areas.

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It is a move that’s reportedly opposed by senior military leaders who fear the long-term costs of total occupation.

We already have a sense of what such an occupation would look like.

The Gaza Strip would be further chopped and sliced into militarised zones, patrolled by Israeli forces.

Palestinians would be confined to tightly controlled enclaves, with limited movement, constant surveillance, and highly restricted access to humanitarian aid.

 

For Mr Netanyahu, the political logic may seem compelling.

Public outrage over images of skeletal Israeli hostages has presented an opportunity to reassert his security credentials, which were significantly damaged after the catastrophic events of 7 October 2023, that occurred under his watch.

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With elections on the horizon – not imminent but soon enough – Mr Netanyahu is under pressure.

A dramatic military move may offer him a short-term narrative of strength and control.

But full occupation of Gaza brings major strategic and moral risks and could massively backfire.

There’s no guarantee it will create new leverage in stalled negotiations, nor is it likely to advance what’s now being floated as a comprehensive peace deal.

In fact, the opposite is more probable.

The occupation could entrench the conflict even further, triggering a long-term insurgency in which Gazans suffer even more and Israeli soldiers become perpetual targets of guerrilla attacks.

Protracted urban warfare amid Gaza’s ruins would require tens of thousands of troops and carry the likelihood of significant Israeli casualties.

The military is already stretched thin.

An expanded operation would only deepen reservist fatigue and public weariness.

Then there’s the grave risk to hostages.

Military operations in areas where they may be held could endanger their lives even further.

And this would likely sharpen the deep divides in Israeli society.

Protests against the war are already widespread and appear to be growing

The unity that existed in the war’s early days has been replaced by distrust and outrage.

Internationally, Israel faces mounting criticism and increasing diplomatic isolation.

Mr Netanyahu may be in denial about how his actions are perceived globally, but the optics of a full occupation, built on the rubble of the already staggering destruction and displacement in Gaza, will only intensify global condemnation.