Nigeria launches election race with poll date
The News
Nigeria’s election season officially kicked off as the poll organizer set Feb. 20, 2027, as polling day, even though campaigning is already well underway for a contest that will test the popularity of President Bola Tinubu’s attempt to overhaul one of Africa’s largest economies and resolve multiple security crises.
Tinubu is widely expected to seek reelection, despite not yet declaring his intentions, with pro-Tinubu campaign posters appearing around major Nigerian cities since last year. The 73-year-old launched his presidency in 2023 by scrapping fuel subsidies and removing a currency peg, changes that initially drove up inflation but have since helped to attract investment and boost economic growth. He is expected to face familiar heavyweights, some of whom are banding together to form an opposition coalition.
Atiku Abubakar, a former vice president who came second in the last election, and Peter Obi, a former state governor who came third, are part of that coalition, but it remains unclear who will be at the top of the ticket. Both are still considered Tinubu’s strongest challengers going into 2027.
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At least five state governors and nearly a dozen federal lawmakers from the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party have jumped ship to Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress in recent months. They include governors from key oil producing states Rivers, Delta, and Akwa Ibom — each with huge voting populations — who have pledged to help Tinubu retain his job.
The issue of how to share rolling election results next year has raised tensions in recent weeks. Opposition politicians and civil society groups insist that voting results from polling stations must appear in real time on the electoral commission’s website, to guard against tampering with tallies recorded on paper.
“Election results must be transmitted electronically and in real time to protect the people’s mandate and eliminate manipulation,” said Obi, who was a key figure at a march to parliament last week to demand real-time result uploads. Lawmakers subsequently amended Nigeria’s election law to require electronic transmission, but added a caveat to allow paper records as an alternative during periods of network failure.
Abubakar, meanwhile, asked for a review of the Feb. 20 date, citing a possible conflict with the Muslim holy month of Ramadan that involves day-long fasts. “Something as basic as choosing a broadly acceptable date should not be mishandled. It speaks to competence, foresight, and respect for citizens,” he said. Besides the poll for president, elections will be held in March 2027 for state governorships and state legislators.
Step Back
Nigeria’s electoral commission INEC has organized all major elections since the country’s return to democracy in 1999, but its performance record has often been mixed.
It gained widespread applause for polls in 2015 that saw the defeat of an incumbent president for the first time in Nigeria’s history. But a longstanding feature of Nigerian elections includes delays in distributing voting materials on polling day and — during the 2023 ballot — glitchy equipment postponing the timely transmission of results. Joash Amupitan, a law professor and Tinubu appointee, took over as the agency’s head last October.
Alexander’s view
Tinubu has consolidated power over the last three years by securing the loyalty of senior members of his party — especially in the legislature — while poaching defectors from rivals. This approach puts him in good stead ahead of next year’s election.
The president has largely put out most fires that started during his tenure, beginning with a national uproar in his first few months following the sensational end to petrol subsidies. Multiple efforts by labor unions to strike in protest against the rapid rise in the cost of living amounted to nothing. Opposition parties failed to muster the level of organization and intensity that could rouse the public into pressuring the government. A year away, neither Abubakar nor Obi looks set to budge for the other as the opposition’s candidate.
The result is that, despite existing household pains owing to more expensive fuel, a resurgent kidnapping crisis that exposes deep security vulnerabilities, and external pressure from a US government that claims Christians are persecuted in Nigeria, Tinubu has expanded his base and looks strong.
At least for now. The coalition led by Abubakar and Obi may yet figure out a maneuver and policy outlook that commands Nigerians’ attention and confidence. Some leading figures in its ranks are former Tinubu allies, such as Nasir El Rufai, a veteran northern politician who turned fiercely against Tinubu after a failed process to join the president’s cabinet. “In the past, we opposed some members of the coalition, but now we must come together, forgive one another, and save this country,” El Rufai, who worked against Abubakar in 2023, told the BBC last week.
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