Some users of Polymarket hit it big with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran
Users on Polymarket made big bucks on U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran, including six who predicted the specific date of the attacks.
Over $529 million was wagered on shares for “yes or no” on the prediction market Polymarket regarding the timing of U.S. strikes on Iran, with dates ranging from Dec. 31, 2025, to Dec. 31, 2026.
Another $131 million was bet on whether the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the initial strikes Saturday, would be “out as Supreme Leader of Iran” by Saturday.
Among the accounts that made bets in the days before the strikes predicting they would happen by Saturday, 109 made at least $10,000 in profits, 16 made at least $100,000 and one account that bought $60,000 in “yes” shares made nearly $500,000, according to The New York Times.
On Friday alone, the day before the war was launched, accounts on Polymarket made at least $855,000 in predictive bets, according to the New York Times.
The blockchain analytics platform Bubblemaps also pointed out six accounts, all made last month, which specifically bet for strikes to occur Saturday in the hours before the war began.
Sen. Chris Murphy, Connecticut Democrat, quote-posted the Bubblemaps post on X pointing this out Saturday and made allegations against the Trump administration.
“It’s insane this is legal. People around Trump are profiting off war and death,” he said.
Sen. Adam Schiff, California Democrat, also posted about the bets, calling on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to ban predictive wagers on wars.
Mr. Murphy reiterated the accusations in another post Wednesday, and said that he will introduce legislation to ban the potential use of insider information on government actions like the launching of strikes on Iran to make wagers on sites like Polymarket.
“I think it’s likely there were people making the decision on war with Iran that had a financial interest in doing so because they had placed a bet on one of these markets,” Mr. Murphy claimed in remarks to the New York Times.
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said in an email to Reuters news agency that “the only special interest guiding the Trump administration’s decision-making is the best interest of the American people.”
Donald Trump Jr. advises Polymarket and his 1789 Capital firm has invested in the website, according to NPR.
Polymarket competitor Kalshi, by comparison, did not offer a market to predict military strikes against Iran, and the company is reimbursing people who bet on the removal of Khamenei.
“We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death … We are reimbursing all fees from this market … If you have a position from before Khamenei died, you will be paid out on the last-traded price before his death,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said on X.
