What’s next for embattled Rep. Tony Gonzales after being forced into runoff?

Rep. Tony Gonzales, Texas Republican, survived Tuesday’s GOP primary — but just barely. Now, with a runoff looming, a congressional ethics investigation underway and mounting calls from members of his own party to resign, the embattled West Texas congressman faces an increasingly uncertain political future.

Forced into a runoff

Mr. Gonzales, who has represented Texas’ 23rd Congressional District since 2021, failed to clear the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff after weeks of fallout from reports alleging he had an affair with a former staffer who later took her own life.

With all precincts reporting, Second Amendment influencer Brandon Herrera — known online as “TheAKGuy” — led Mr. Gonzales 43.3% to 41.7%, forcing a May 26 runoff between the two.

It won’t be their first extended fight. The pair clashed in a similarly tight contest in 2024, when Mr. Gonzales narrowly defeated Mr. Herrera in a runoff, 50.6% to 49.4% — a margin of fewer than 400 votes.

This time, Mr. Gonzales heads into the rematch politically wounded.

An ethics investigation

The political pressure intensified Wednesday when the House Ethics Committee announced it had voted to establish an investigative subcommittee to examine Mr. Gonzales’ conduct.

The panel will review whether Mr. Gonzales engaged in sexual misconduct with a staffer and whether he dispensed special favors or privileges — potential violations of the House Code of Official Conduct.

The staffer at the center of the allegations, Regina Ann Santos-Aviles, worked in Mr. Gonzales’ regional office. Messages reported by the San Antonio Express-News show her referencing what she described as an “affair with our boss.”

Her husband later learned of the alleged relationship, according to reporting on the case. Santos-Aviles died Sept. 14, 2025, a day after setting herself on fire outside her home in Uvalde.

The Office of Congressional Conduct had already opened a preliminary review of the matter months earlier. Ethics investigators also sent a letter to Santos-Aviles’ widower, Adrian Aviles, last November requesting records related to the alleged relationship.

Mr. Gonzales has publicly denied the affair and described a $300,000 settlement demand from Mr. Aviles and his attorney as “blackmail.”

House ethics rules include a 60-day pre-election window that can delay certain investigative steps and public disclosures, meaning some committee actions are often postponed until after a primary vote.

Calls to resign

Several of Mr. Gonzales’ Republican colleagues have called on him to step down as new details of the alleged relationship have emerged. He has repeatedly declined to do so.

House GOP leadership, for its part, has stopped short of withdrawing support. Speaker Mike Johnson has said the matter should be allowed to “play out” through the ethics process.

A competitive district

Even beyond the immediate scandal, Mr. Gonzales faces structural challenges.

His sprawling South Texas district — which stretches from San Antonio to El Paso along the U.S.-Mexico border — has trended Republican in recent cycles but remains competitive, particularly if Hispanic turnout shifts or Republican enthusiasm dips.

With a runoff set for May 26, an ethics investigation underway and his own party divided over whether to stand by him, Mr. Gonzales has little room for error in the weeks ahead.